Prognosis Research

Prognosis is a key concept in patient care. However, although Prognosis Research is becoming increasingly important in clinical medicine, the actual methodology behind it is relatively underdeveloped.

Dr. ir. E. (Ewoud) Schuit
Assistant Professor, UMC Utrecht
  • 3 weeks - 14 hrs / wk
  • Academic Certificate
  • 1.5 EC
  • Online
  • English
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Inschrijving sluit op 03/02/2025 205 dagen tot einde inschrijving
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Course description

Prognosis is a key concept in patient care. The methodology of prognosis research is however relatively underdeveloped. This is in contrast to its growing importance in clinical medicine. In this course, principles and methods of non-experimental prognosis research will be discussed. In lectures, practical exercises and discussion of examples, the practice of prognosis research in a clinical setting is addressed. Emphasis will be on design and statistical analysis of prognosis studies, construction and estimation of prediction rules and approaches to validation and generalization of research results.

Learning objectives

By the end of the course, you should be able to:

  • Understand the key characteristics and different types of prognosis research.
  • Set out the various steps involved in performing prognosis research.

In particular, you should be able to:

  • Demonstrate insight in the key characteristics and different types of prognosis research.
  • Distinguish the different steps of performing prognosis research.
  • Demonstrate insight in different modelling approaches for prognosis research.
  • Construct a prognostic model.
  • Know how to apply modelling techniques to deal with overfitting in small datasets.
  • Know differences in modelling with binary, time-to-event, and categorical outcomes.

Course topics

In the course, the following topics will be discussed:

  • The principles of Prognosis Research and the interpretation of its results.
  • The steps of prognostic model validation, including updating models to their validation population.
  • The steps of prognostic model development, including predictor selection and the evaluation of model performance, and more special issues including overfitting and shrinkage.
  • Prognosis research with time to event data, e.g. Cox regression models, and other outcomes, and addresses overlap and differences with regard to general linear models.


This Prognosis Research course includes an open book exam that consists of multiple choice and essay questions. Know that that you will not have to do any analyses yourself. The questions will focus on interpretation and theory.

The exam are, by default, online using online proctoring. If you wish to take the exam on-site in Utrecht, the Netherlands, this is possible as well.

Exam edition February 2024
The exam will take place on March 1st, 2024 from 14:15 – 16:15 CET. The re-examination will take place on April 19th, 2024 from 14:15 – 16:15 CET. Note: these times might be subject to change. The exact time and place will be announced as soon as possible in the learning environment and any changes announced there will overrule the information here.

Taking the exam is not compulsory. However, if you want to receive the Course Certificate and the credits, it is obligatory to take the exam. You are allowed to redo the exam once.

It might be that, due to a force majeure situation, you cannot be present during the first exam moment.

• MSc Epidemiology Postgraduate students must then, preferably prior to the first exam option, ask the academic counsellor for permission to be absent. Please note that the academic counsellor can ask for some form of proof of your absence (e.g. in case of illness) to establish if you are applicable for authorized absence. Jaco de Fockert-Koefoed, MSc is the academic counsellor you need to turn to through

• All other participants should contact the MSc Epidemiology Office instead, through

In short, as of now, it is no longer possible to skip the first exam option and -automatically- enroll in the second exam. Unauthorized absence during the first exam period results in no longer being able to finish the course that college year.

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