Prognostic Research

Prognostic is a key concept in patient care. However, although Prognostic Research is becoming increasingly important in clinical medicine, the actual methodology behind it is relatively underdeveloped.

Dr. ir. E. (Ewoud) Schuit
Assistant Professor, UMC Utrecht
  • 3 weeks - 14 hrs / wk
  • Academic Certificate
  • 1.5 EC
  • Online
  • English
Kies je startdatum
Inschrijving sluit op 05/02/2024 135 dagen tot einde inschrijving
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Course description

The purpose of this course is to redress this imbalance. We will therefore discuss the principles and methods of non-experimental Prognostic Research, together with the practice of Prognostic Research in a clinical setting. The emphasis will be on learning about the design and statistical analysis of Prognostic Studies, the construction and estimation of prediction rules, the various approaches to validation, and the generalization of research results. You will also learn how to address the challenges of dealing with small data sets.

Learning objectives

By the end of the course, you should be able to:

  • Understand the background types and phases of prognostic research.
  • Know how to evaluate model performance.
  • Know how to develop a prognostic prediction model.
  • Understand time-to-event outcome data and multinomial outcome data.
  • Know what machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) details, and what their differences are.

Course topics

• The principles of Prognostic Research and the interpretation of its results
• The issue of missing values and data analysis in Prognostic Research, including the underlying assumptions and their statistical consequences, and the evaluation of model performance
• The practical application of Prognostic Research and its clinical consequences
• Modelling techniques for small data sets


This course includes an exam. The exams are, by default, online using online proctoring. If you wish to take the exam on-site in Utrecht, the Netherlands, this is possible as well.

Exam edition February 2024
The exam will take place on March 1st, 2024 from 14:15 – 16:15 CET. The re-examination will take place on April 19th, 2024 from 14:15 – 16:15 CET. Note: these times might be subject to change. The exact time and place will be announced as soon as possible in the learning environment and any changes announced there will overrule the information here.

Taking the exam is not compulsory. However, if you want to receive the Course Certificate and the credits, it is obligatory to take the exam. You are allowed to redo the exam once.

It might be that, due to a force majeure situation, you cannot be present during the first exam moment.

• MSc Epidemiology Postgraduate students must then, preferably prior to the first exam option, ask the academic counsellor for permission to be absent. Please note that the academic counsellor can ask for some form of proof of your absence (e.g. in case of illness) to establish if you are applicable for authorized absence. Jaco de Fockert-Koefoed, MSc is the academic counsellor you need to turn to through

• All other participants should contact the MSc Epidemiology Office instead, through

In short, as of now, it is no longer possible to skip the first exam option and -automatically- enroll in the second exam. Unauthorized absence during the first exam period results in no longer being able to finish the course that college year.

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